Chapter 138 Prying the Wheel of History
.Rebirth of 1990's official fortune Volume 3 Storm and Clouds Chapter 138 Picking the Wheel of History
"My brother's performance is too silly!" The first thought after waking up from the shock was that Zhang Yan was so popular. Almost every party had a discussion and was criticized. Although Ichinato was shocking, the crowd of sins went there.
However, after this thought, Li Meng felt a little jealous. I don’t know when it started. This junior brother had already left himself far behind!
Let’s look at Director Jiang again. Although he was shocked, he couldn’t hide his inner thoughts! This time, he surrounded Zhang Yan. Through Zhang Yan’s debate, he could still get the support of a group of real power factions. There was another strong enemy missing on the road ahead. It can be said that the losses were extremely small and the gains were huge.
Zhang Yan walked to Li Meng with a smile and asked, "Senior Brother, what do you think I'm talking about?"
Li Meng looked at Zhang Yan who was fine and finally shook his head helplessly. Some people's thinking is different from that of normal people. They cannot be counted together at all.
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"Father, this Erlengzi is like a cannon and has committed all the departments. If I had known this, I would rather not go with him!" After returning home, Li Meng expressed his regret for Zhang Yan's affairs.
Mr. Li sat on the chair and looked at the floating clouds outside. After a while, he said, "Little Shitou is not a fool!"
"He's not."
"If he doesn't want to say this, then the emperor will come. He can't let him say a word."
"right!"
Speaking of this, Mr. Li stood up and patted Li Meng on the shoulder: "You understand now."
Li Meng lowered his head and said, "It's gone!"
Said: "Say"
Under what circumstances can smart people say stupid things? Only when most people think this sentence is stupid. Galileo's heliocentric theory is like this. Mr. Li means this. Zhang Yan was prepared for these words and did not say them under the inducement of Director Jiang, so there must be something that was from Li Menghu. Li Meng is also a smart person. He just thought about it for a moment and knew where the festival was.
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"I said it has always been bad. I was also rushing to do things. So no one would expect me to say good things in a meeting. Arrange Director Jiang to me to explain what they wanted to see. It was not a guy who was timid and only knew how to follow the trend." Zhang Yan was chatting with Xiao Yunqisi in Zhang Yan's office.
“Yeah, so….”
"I think that what this meeting needs may not be the flowers and white water in the past, but real bricks. The economy is not scary. But the problem now is that there is no error. The previous set suddenly fails and everyone has lost their direction. So it is definitely not possible to maintain the previous set of practices. How to change what they don't know? In the end, I hope we can come up with a solution."
"You're pretty good at thinking..."
Zhang Yan smiled again after hearing this: "It's either to think about it. I just speak with my conscience. I will do half the effort to do things like this. If I were to understand the best intentions, it would be 'I can't do it even if I die."
"Okay! You're so good. I'll feel relieved..." Xiao Yunqi was very happy and couldn't help laughing. When Zhang Yan saw it, he immediately asked with a smile: "Master. Do you think your apprentice performs so well. Are there any rewards?"
"Reward you a big head"
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The incident showed signs soon after. Xiao Yunqi resigned from the position of executive vice governor. Zhang Yan unexpectedly took over this arrangement.
Everyone expected! But Zhang Yan knew that the inevitability of this arrangement was the way foreign investment drives the economy. It has reached its peak! The current slowdown is the automatic reaction of the market economy!
I am not actually careful about the sustainability of this strong growth. Because Zhang Yan and others know that the result is certain: unsustainable. The current real estate is just a temporary guest role. After the drought-out house price rises, it is indeed a stage of "rigid demand cannot be bought, but investment demand is afraid of hike interest rates". As the capital market remains generally loose for a long time, although housing prices are still difficult to turn down trend, the investment activities of openers may become more and more cautious (the control of the speed of land becomes property is related to the life and death of developers). The contribution to economic growth will become weaker and weaker. External demand is waiting for the end of the inventory replenishment cycle of the United States and Europe. Private consumption is a bit weaker than the capital shortage of capital. Western consumers are somewhat weaker. It is basically certain that the economy of the United States and Europe will weaken again in the second half of the year.
Therefore, it is normal for China's economy to slow down naturally.
Zhang Yan was very worried. When this increase showed signs of fatigue, a new round of investment-led stimulus policies supported by bank loans were re-emerged. Judging from the current situation, the government seems to be leaving room for re-stimulus for possible economic slowdowns in the future. The Chinese government seems to be unable to tolerate the re-weakness of the economy. The reason is that unemployment and social stability are at risk.
The fundamentals of China's economy depend on the relationship between domestic investment and consumption. China's investment rate has been rising to 43% since 2001, not only far higher than China's own average of 38% in the past years, but also far higher than the peak level of the industrialization process of major economies (Japan was at the peak of capacity expansion in 1970, South Korea's capital rate was also 0% lower). On the contrary, from 1997 to 2004, China's consumption rate fell by 59488 (corresponding to the increase in China's savings rate by 512). Almost all of the contribution comes from the decline in the consumption rate of residents. The consumption rate of residents is 43% lower than the normal consumption rate of developed countries (about 70). But their consumption rate is still 55.
Due to the economic stimulus in the early 2024, fixed asset investment contributed 95% to GDP growth in the first three quarters of this year, that is, 73% of the economic growth, which was brought about by fixed asset investment. For comparison, the contribution rate of investment to GDP growth reached 88% in the first half of this year, doubled the average of 43% in the previous decade.
Since the beginning of this year, investment has contributed to the accelerated increase in economic growth. The share of investment in GDP is now close to 50%. Zhang Yan estimates that the proportion of domestic private consumption in GDP fell below the minimum limit of 35% in the third quarter of this year. The serious reverse trend of investment and consumption in GDP shows that everything: investment caused by exports and exports is now 0% of GDP.
Everyone knows that the investment demand from the government can only temporarily balance the supply and demand relationship. But in the long run, this will inevitably increase the supply capacity. Residents are the most consumers. When their income continues to decline in the economy, demand and supply will eventually be unbalanced. Zhang Yanlai is already overcapacity. But will this cause a more serious overcapacity in the future? However, in the fourth quarter of last year, facing the collapse of exports, the economic growth rate plummeted, and the unemployment of migrant workers has a sharp increase. Does the government have a better choice?
It is difficult for Zhang Yan to guess what time will cause problems in serious macro imbalances. Such an uneven trend often lasts longer than Zhang Yan expected. In 4 years, economists predicted that global imbalances are no longer sustainable and there will be major problems. It will not be until the 2000 crisis. But Zhang Yan is convinced that after the deterioration of macro imbalances, the process of rebalancing will become extremely manageable and extremely painful.
China needs to maintain stability and employment pressure. Therefore, it must maintain a relatively high growth rate of more than 8). This statement seems uncertain now. It defaults to an important premise, which is under the existing government-led growth path and model that relies on investment and exports.
This formula proved that it is not in line with China's comparative advantages of existing endowments. It failed to achieve the best allocation of resources. Because not absorbing employment is the root of macro imbalance. China's industry shows a direction of overweight chemical and capital intensiveness (China's pre-industrialization rate is 43%, far higher than the water when other countries complete industrialization. Among them, the proportion of heavy chemical industry in the entire industry continues to rise to more than 0%). It will inevitably make the initial distribution of national income increasingly biased towards the government and capital. The share of dynamic remuneration and residents' savings account for more than 0%.
Chapter completed!