The emperor laughed childishly at a loss at Zaize. It was not as simple as saying.

"I thought it seriously and felt that there were three main reasons." The emperor patiently explained his position - after all, this is a set of thinking logic that even he needs to be familiar with. "First, until the war is over, Japan cannot support it, and China is reluctant to do so. Without proper financial arrangements, will it not end and fight for both sides? This war was originally imposed on us by Japan. As long as the war is ended decently and Jiaozhou is taken back, the results are already significant. If we continue, we will not be sure to win, nor will we be able to fight to the death. Why should we force it? Secondly, if we ignore the overall situation due to momentary anger, once Japan's financial collapse, we will inevitably suffer the disaster. At that time, in order to get rid of difficulties and divert domestic conflicts, the Japanese warlords and chaebols will launch wars to the outside world at all costs. Of course, the target is China, wouldn't it be a disaster? Thirdly, the European war is in full swing, and the great powers have great demand for the Far East commodity and have high expectations for maintaining a peace in the Far East. If the empire concentrates on economic construction and industrial and commercial development, the benefits will be much greater than the war."

"The Emperor's Holy Spirit." After hearing this explanation, Zai Ze couldn't think about it for a while, but the "Holy Spirit" still needs to be praised.

"Zaize, you are a wise man. Look at the price of iron, coal, cotton yarn, and grain now, and what price was before the war. Do China and Japan have money and don't make money and get cheaper? Although Japan's industrial foundation is stronger than that of the empire, and its level of processing, production and manufacturing is higher than that of the empire, it is seriously lacking in resources. It is said that it is hard to cook without rice. As long as the empire controls the price of raw materials, it can cut a large piece of Japan's profit." The emperor was flirting with this, "If you make it well, you will get rich. Is it necessary to compete with the hungry tiger for food?"

Zai Ze suddenly realized that this was the great wisdom to seek the overall situation. "Just..." he murmured, "Is Japan willing to submit?"

"If Japan wants to be so obedient, what do you want to do with you, the ministers?" The emperor made a fuss. "This matter is pure profit from the empire. The difference is the size of the benefits. For Japan, it is a situation where the pros and cons are mixed, and the gains and losses are different. Can they understand the situation be the key link in determining success or failure? If Liang Dunyan wants to do Zhuerdian's work, you have to do the Japanese work. As long as this matter is done, you will be the first contribution."

"Emperor, will the National Defense Forces poke the backbone of the minister and scold me as a traitor?..." Zai Ze was uneasy, "Sales to seek peace have been taboos since ancient times. When Mr. Li made such a business to the French decades ago, no one has let him go.

”

"It's not hindering, it's not hindering..." The emperor waved his hand, "If I have me to support you, do it with confidence and boldness. Tieliang will not have any ideas, and he himself agrees with the goal of limited war."

After some guidance from the emperor, Zaize was still full of questions, but after all, he had a clue and room to think about.

In fact, some things cannot be guessed. Often, you can only get a wrong prediction after guessing. Or guessing the beginning but not the end. The emperor saw it very accurately. Although China and Japan are not interdependent economies, at least it is good for Japan now to save Japan's exchange rate and financial system, but it is also necessary for China. Moreover, the emperor had a more important reason that he did not tell Zaize - this was not the emperor who deliberately wanted to show his cleverness and keep his hands on it, but on the contrary, it was to do things better. Because, with the wisdom of human beings at that time, even if they were smart like Zaize and others, it was difficult to understand the mystery in the middle. This mystery was worthless, but it was actually the relationship between exchange rate and productivity.

Indeed, both theoretically and practically, exchange rates are closely linked to productivity. Exchange rates are the international price of currency. To be reflected, productivity must be exchanged. The exchange value of commodities is the fundamental measure that determines the intrinsic value of currency. Therefore, to a certain extent, it can be said that exchange rates are the embodiment of productivity in the currency field. If a country has a high level of productivity, its exchange rate index index does not mean that it is higher than the absolute value. If a country has a low level of productivity, its exchange rate index will definitely not be high.

The logic is very simple: high productivity level = strong manufacturing capacity = equal to rich commodity types, high technical content = equal to rich market competitiveness and large market demand. In order to exchange for commodities from countries with high productivity levels, countries with relatively low productivity levels can only try every means to obtain high-level currency in order to complete exchange. Once the demand for high-level currency exceeds the equilibrium point, it will promote the scarcity of the country's currency, which is reflected in the financial market, which is the rise in exchange rates. Understand this point, you can understand why China needs to make two pairs of pants to exchange for a Boeing passenger plane. It is unimaginable if it is measured by labor time.

If this relationship is deduced in reverse, another conclusion can be drawn - on the premise that the productivity level remains stable for a certain period of time, the exchange rate level is inversely proportional to the competitiveness of the commodity, and a high exchange rate is likely to suffocate the core competitiveness of the unit of commodity calculated using this currency as the local currency.

Of course, exchange rate and productivity level are by no means equivalent. The former is only an objective reflection of the latter in the field of monetary and finance. It may be true or distorted, but it is by no means the productivity level itself. Overall, it is a curve that fluctuates frequently and remains stable over the long-term average time. It cannot be considered that a high exchange rate index is equivalent to a high productivity level, and even in some special circumstances, the exchange rate can be completely separated from the productivity level. For example, under extreme conditions such as war, the exchange rate seems useless. Once price control is implemented, the corresponding reflection between the exchange rate level and the productivity level will quickly distort.

Taking Lin Guangyu's world as an example, in peacetime, it is impossible for the United States to produce cheap clothing. From the perspective of exchange rate, it is far from cost-effective. The local 2 yuan may not even make a pair of trousers. If you import 2 yuan, you can buy a pair of trousers. However, during the war, the currency only has paper meaning.

If you need this kind of material, don’t say 2 yuan, let him use 20 yuan himself - everything is for winning! But if there is no international exchange, is it a difference to call 20 US dollars?

In this sense, although the United States and Singapore are so-called high-exchange index countries, under war conditions, the former can use domestic production to replace imported products extinct due to war, while the latter does not have enough raw materials, energy and personnel to achieve this, so they can only be stupid! The conclusion that this is to draw is that under war conditions, the United States is a developed country in productivity, and Singapore is a backward country in productivity, and even lags behind most countries. What determines the success or failure of the war is the basis of industrialization, manufacturing capacity, but not the level of exchange rate and financial development.

But extreme conditions are a minority after all. Because even under war conditions, belligerent and export business may still exist. If the belligerent countries are completely blocked, it is impossible to cut them off. At this time, the exchange rate will play a role in regulating production capacity - the manufacturing capacity of countries with high exchange rate indexes begins to decline. The corresponding industrial manufacturing capacity and commodity competitiveness of countries with low exchange rate indexes begin to rise. The emperor remembers it very clearly in his mind - in his place, the Japanese yen exchange rate after the square agreement has increased significantly. The Japanese yen used by Japanese people to purchase an imported car will soon become 2. The capital capacity and financial power of Japan have reached an unprecedented height.

But soon the problem arose. Because the yen price level has increased, Japanese goods have become less and less attractive. Although they can be consolidated and improved by strengthening their own market, their competitiveness in the international market has plummeted. A large number of enterprises dedicated to foreign trade have gone bankrupt or transformed, and large local industrial enterprises have transferred their industries to Southeast Asia, and backward countries such as China have redeveloped. The local industrial manufacturing industry has shrunk sharply, and the financial industry and securities market have developed abnormally. Although Japan has mastered its financial advantages and has not lost its technological advantages, its manufacturing capabilities have declined, which has led to a recession that has lasted for more than 10 years.

From this example, we can understand it in turn. Although China can rely on the power of speculative capital and the good news on the Shandong battlefield to significantly suppress the yen exchange rate level, the result of forced reduction of the yen exchange rate level can only greatly enhance Japan's industrial products competitiveness and manufacturing capabilities in the international market. Originally, the ability to export 100 million pairs of pants may have become 200 million due to exchange rate changes, which may still be consistent in calculations, but the production capacity has increased 100 million. If we tell the cabinet this concern, most important officials will not understand it. In their opinion, the benefits of reducing the yen exchange rate to a lower level are extremely great - the yen is significantly

Depreciation, China can reduce land loans in units of Japanese yen, which means that China can obtain huge exchange overflow; Japan's own currency depreciation needs to pay more when paying foreign debts, which is equivalent to significantly reducing Japan's financial strength and comprehensive national strength; Chinese companies can buy Japanese goods that cannot be made by relying on a higher exchange rate level, which is equivalent to reducing costs and increasing profits. How to calculate the mutual benefits of China and Japan? Their choice must be currency, or gold - this is a mercantilist concept, but it is also a visible and tangible return. It's a pity that this will blind too many people's eyes.

In the emperor's opinion, the most dangerous thing about doing this is to inappropriately improve Japan's production capacity and industrial manufacturing capacity. If the other party takes risks, then no liabilities or capital financing will be restricted. If you win, the debt will naturally be written off; if you lose, you don't care about taking another debt.

In another time and space, Iraq invaded Kuwait for various other reasons, but Iraq owed Kuwait a large amount of foreign debts in the Iraq-Iraq War was a trigger. Saddam Hussein's plan was good - as long as he swallowed Kuwait, any kind of debt could be written off. This goal was almost achieved, but it could not be achieved due to the constraints of the international environment. However, in this era, it is natural to survive the strong.

The danger of Japan is that every minute its industrial strength and manufacturing level increase, the risk of its foreign aggression and expansion will increase by one point. Taking the policy of restoring Japan's exchange rate index can effectively restore the international competitiveness of Chinese goods and effectively stimulate the development of domestic industries. Of course, if the yen index is too high, it will also cause certain damage to China. As a poor and weak net debt country, China does not have enough financial strength to cope with debt pressure and lacks strong national strength to turn against others. The key lies in the grasp of strength.

.China has far richer resources than Japan, a broader market, and a cheaper labor force. This is a natural competitive advantage and can be achieved without distorting exchange rate leverage. Why do you have to risk shooting yourself in the foot to change it? Moreover, the short-term setback in the yen exchange rate is not due to changes in economic fundamentals, but just a temporary political product. Once the situation calms down, it will sooner or later return to its original position. This is an objective manifestation of economic laws not being transferred by human will. Forcibly suppressing requires a price that is not worth the cost and may not be effective.

Radio waves frequently travel between Tokyo and the capital. Both sides are smart people and do not need to spend too much verbal explanations. In the view of Japan, China made a good suggestion. Although it cannot recover the losses of the war against China, it can at least step down decently, avoid more and greater losses and do not need to pay more. The Chinese people's asking price is also very smart, using the forward Boxer indemnity as immediate war compensation, which vaguely wants to win back the game, but it is not a risk that is unreasonable. Both sides not only save their own face but also leave room and a way for each other, and also have common economic benefits after reaching an agreement. It should be said that it is a relatively wise exchange condition.
Chapter completed!