1387【Stock Market Forecast】
Half an hour later, the Tokyo stock market opened.
As soon as the market opened, the Nikkei index continued to fall.
Seeing the numbers falling on the screen, Liang Botao was very excited.
The other colleagues looked disappointed.
"It's so miserable, it's so miserable. I don't know how much it will fall today."
"Why has the Japanese government not announced a rescue? Do you really want to watch the Tokyo stock market collapse?"
"At least, they dare to open the market, but it's not like our Hong Kong directly announced the suspension of the market. Madd, all these stocks have been ruined. Once the market opens, I don't know how much money I will pay."
They talked about it.
"Botao, guess how much will the Nikkei index fall again this time?" Xia Tian asked with a smile.
"It shouldn't fall too much. Because the foundation of the Japanese economy is very good, and it recovers and develops very quickly after the war. Especially after the signing of the Plaza Agreement, the domestic economy has flourished unprecedentedly." Liang Botao analyzed, "This time the Tokyo stock market plummeted, it should be just a burden to the US stock market. After this impact is digested by the people, Japan will definitely take the lead in recovering and rebounding."
Xia Tian nodded after hearing this analysis. As far as he knew, Japan's economic bubble in his previous life was not burst until the 1990s. The previous 87 stock market crash should have only caused some skin trauma, and it is unlikely to be damaged.
Of course, this is the situation in the previous life. No one can say whether there will be any changes in this life and whether the bubble will be exposed in advance, and we still have to observe carefully.
"What will happen to the US stock market in your opinion?" Xia Tian asked with a smile again, "Will it fall sharply for several consecutive days and the Great Recession affect ten years like in 1929?"
"In my opinion, it cannot be so miserable. Nowadays, the United States and the Soviet Union are the two overlords in the world. Although their strength is no longer as strong as after the war, they still have the leadership of the world, which is enough to pass on their own crisis and lead the disaster to the east." Liang Botao waved his hand.
...
In the early post-war period, the United States was the only overlord in the Western world. Because its homeland had not experienced the destruction of war, the losses of the United Kingdom, the captured France, the defeated Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United States were too insignificant.
Moreover, it did not invest in it a few years before the war began, but made great money in the war and took the opportunity to gain considerable benefits. Therefore, after the war, the United States was the real world's largest power, and it was not as strong as it was.
The Marshall Plan promoted by it enabled European countries such as Britain, France, Germany and Italy to quickly restore national strength after the war, and also successfully established their status as the eldest brother of the Western world.
The Bresenton system dominated by it established the US dollar as the world currency. From then on, the paper produced by the United States became treasures comparable to gold, and the United States was tantamount to owning the largest and least limited super gold mine in the world.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which it advocated, has become the largest military organization in the world. It has strong strength and advanced weapons, and no one dares to mess with it. And its greatest significance is that it gives the United States the power to point fingers in European affairs. From then on, Europe has basically become the United States' younger brother, and it only follows its leader.
However, after experiencing the war and the continuous failures of the South Vietnam War, the image of the United States' overlord was severely challenged, revealing its fierce and cowardly side.
The defeats of the two wars also caused heavy losses to the United States, especially the South Vietnam War lasted for 20 years, which was fourteen years longer than World War II, and costing 300 billion US dollars, which changed the US treasury from surplus to deficit, and from the world's largest rich man to the world's largest creditor.
The South Vietnam War also indirectly led to the collapse of the Bresenton system, which hit the dollar's world currency status severely and further declined the US economy, which triggered a decade-long economic recession.
But despite this, the United States is still the most powerful country in the world, and it can still exert a strong influence on other countries. For example, the Plaza Agreement established two years ago coerced the appreciation of the currencies of the two major economic powers of the Federation, Germany and Japan.
Therefore, if a tragedy like that in 1929 is really possible, it will find a way to pass on the crisis and let others help it.
And another thing is that before the stock market crash broke out in 1929, the entire capitalist world was prosperous and the economy was unprecedentedly prosperous, and it was known as the golden age. Therefore, once it collapsed, the people would become more panicked and more unreasonable, and the destructive consequences would naturally become more serious.
However, before this stock market crash, the US economy was hovering at a low level, so the people's psychological endurance was much stronger. Confidence is the most important thing for the stock market. Once you have confidence in the stock market, no matter how high the index is, it can be pushed up. If you lose confidence in the stock market, no matter how low the index falls, no one will support you. The public's confidence has not yet collapsed, so the US stock market is still saved.
In addition, in 1929, the United States did not have much constraints on the stock market, so it allowed greedy capitalists to turmoil in the stock market, resulting in disastrous consequences.
However, the US government is much more rigorous in managing the stock market than sixty years ago. And after many stock market crashes, it also has some experience in how to save the stock market. This can also prevent the stock market from collapsing like in 1929.
So in Liang Botao's opinion, the stock market crash this time will not be more serious than the one in 1929.
...
"It makes sense." Xia Tian nodded after hearing this.
Although he didn't know how the US government saved the market in 1987, he knew how the US was causing trouble after the subprime mortgage crisis, and harmed his neighbors and transferred his crisis to the whole world.
Originally, the subprime mortgage crisis was caused by Wall Street in the United States, but in addition to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and the despised by the whole world, the US economy has been quite limited.
In comparison, Iceland went bankrupt, and the five European countries, Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, and Italy, were in debt crisis and on the verge of bankruptcy, were all implicated by the United States.
"It depends on how the US government rescues the market. If the measures are appropriate and the rescue is timely, I think the US stock market will recover soon." Liang Botao said again, "Of course, if the rescue is unfavorable, the US stock market is likely to fall again."
Xia Tian nodded. After listening to Liang Botao's words, he felt that he should stop at the right time and began to deploy the bottom-up.
Although the US stock market may still fall, for summer, this price is acceptable and can still make a fortune.
Just as he was about to call Michelle and ask her to prepare for the bottom of the game, at this moment, he heard the phone ringing.
When I heard it, it was Mr. Chen Bi who called it.
"Mr. Chen Bi, why did you call me?" Xia Tian said half surprised and half happy when he heard this.
"Mr. Xia, can you come to the Governor's Office?" Chen Bi asked.
"Hong Kong Governor's Office?" Xia Tian was stunned.
"Yes, I hope you can come soon." Chen Bi nodded.
"Is there anything wrong?" Xia Tian asked in confusion.
"It's hard to say on the phone, you'll know when you're here." Chen Bi said mysteriously.
When Xia Tian heard him say this, he had to nod, "Okay, then I'll hurry over as soon as possible."
"Mr. Xia, what are you doing with Mr. Chen Bi?" Liang Botao asked curiously.
"He didn't say anything on the phone, just said that I would go to the Governor's Office." Xia Tian waved his hand and said, "Did you think he guessed something? So you want to warn me not to take advantage of the situation?"
"I don't think so. We will take advantage of the situation and will not rob HSBC. It does not pose any threat to it. Why should he do this forever?" Liang Botao shook his head and said, "Mr. Xia, will he ask you to discuss a plan to rescue the market?"
"Uh..." Xia Tian was stunned, thought for a while, then nodded, "It's possible."
He is now the chairman of Wenhe Group, the second most wealthy man in Hong Kong and a giant in the business world. I don’t know how many investors trust his choice, but he only follows his lead.
If the Hong Kong government wants to rescue the market, it must be a rich man like him. Not to mention how much he spends to save the market, just his statement can boost the confidence of investors.
In "The Great Age", Fang Zhanbo finally fought with Ding Jiawu Crabs for the futures index, and wanted to take advantage of his luck to Li Jiacheng, Huo Yingdong and He Hongshen. When the stock brokers heard that the three rich men came to buy goods, they were all in joy, which also shows their influence in the business world.
Although "The Great Age" is just a TV series, the reason why it was filmed in this way is due to reality and is based on reality.
"What will you do? Do you really have to save the market?" Liang Botao asked again.
If the Hong Kong stock market recovers too quickly, they will have no profit.
"Don't worry, I know what's going on." Xia Tian smiled.
Chapter completed!