Ingram's words sparked another topic of discussion: Can Trinidad and Tobago be lost? If you can give up, what will be the consequences if you lose it? If you can't lose it, how should you keep it?

Most people, including himself, think that this island cannot be defended unless it is another 1:4 Midway Battle. Even Nimitz, who is commanding the Midway Battle, does not have such a luxury. The gap is even bigger than before, and the situation is even more serious than that time. It is simply a fantasy to do it again 1:4. Even in the Midway Battle, he did not think of a 1:4 battle. At best, he thought it was a draw or a small victory. The final result was completely accidental.

He believes that if it is operated properly, the probability of a 2:3 small win may be less than 30%, but the probability of a draw or a 3:2 small loss is greater than 60%. As for the probability of a 1:4 result, he believes that it is less than 5%.

Dewey naturally asked: "What will happen to our army after we lose Trinidad and Tobago?"

"When the Germans occupied the island, they officially had a springboard for invasion of the Caribbean. They could attack the front line of Venezuela and Panama to the west, cooperate with the South American defenders to deal with the Recife cluster in the east, and attack the front line of Puerto Rico to the north." Ingram outlined the attack arrows on the map, while analyzing, "There are dozens of islands of large and small on the semi-arctic island line from the Virgin Islands to Grenada, with different strategic significances. There are one on the two islands of Martinique and Dominic.

The garrison was set up, but unfortunately it was very weak. Martinique had only more than 3,000 free French troops, and Dominic had about 1,000 Marines. If even the largest Trinidad and Tobago could not be kept, these islands would not be able to defend. It was a luxury to expect this semi-arc island chain to block the German army. The real strategic significance is Puerto Rico, Haiti (Haiti and Dominican), Jamaica and Cuba. They are the last line of defense to defend the Florida Peninsula."

This is his main difference with Turner. The latter believes that after the German army occupied Trinidad and Tobago, it naturally cut off the ability of the US military to supply Recife through the Caribbean interior. To replenish Recife, the main force of the Atlantic Fleet must cover the mid-Atlantic front line. In other words, Turner believes that the German army will not take this island chain, because it has little substantive significance.

"Unless our troops, regardless of Venezuela and Recife, attack directly into the deep side of the Caribbean, I don't think they will attack the half-arc island chain in the short term."

Dewey frowned and asked, "How many troops do we have on these four large islands?"

"After continuous dispatch and deployment of troops, Cuba has 100,000 defenders, Haiti and Dominican, more than 30,000, Puerto Rico and Jamaica each, and more than 2,000 land aircraft and more than 500 HNA aircraft. The four islands are supporting each other and support each other." Clark said, "The main problem lies in three points. First, the navy is insufficient. The four large islands only have destroyers and submarines, and there are no fleets of cruisers or above. They can only harass and cannot fight head-on. Second, the shore defense fortifications are still insufficient. Large-caliber coastal defense artillery and permanent fortifications are too few, which cannot stop the enemy's main fleet artillery shelling. In terms of defense level, not only cannot be compared with Oahu, but also the level of Cife and Panama is not as good as; third, most of the aviation force are no longer in the past, and the combat effectiveness is doubtful."

The third point was confirmed by General Arnold. In the Battle of Panama, China Airlines fought once and suffered many casualties. It has not yet recovered its vitality. Among the more than 2,000 China Airlines aircraft deployed, there are only more than 500 skilled crews. HNA is slightly more proficient, and it will not exceed half. In other words, the truly capable aviation force is about 800 aircraft, and the remaining 1,700 are rookies who are driving ducks and put on the shelves. They are still conducting field training. It is unknown whether they can survive in the first battle. If they survive three battles, they can immediately become veterans. This is the authentic experience of the Soviet Red Army.

"From the geographical perspective, the four islands are connected in a series. The closer we get to the local area, the stronger our defense and aviation force will be, and we can also get reinforcements from Florida in an emergency. Therefore, the Navy formulated a plan to resist step by step to weaken the German offensive capabilities in an island-by-island battle, and finally invest in the main naval counterattack. The offensive direction summarized by Admiral Ingram does exist, but in comparison, I welcome the Germans to fight northwards, which will help knock out their big teeth." Turner said, "It was estimated that the German attack on the above four islands was not earlier than March 1945. The current progress is basically consistent and may be slightly delayed."

Turner's plan seems to be incomplete and too idealistic in the Army: this island defender and air defense force do not have the ability to stick to it for more than a month. The Air Force complains that it cannot draw out so many skilled crews at all. Now the skilled crew has just reached the 3,000 mark. The west coast needs to be defended, Recife needs to be managed, and the east coast needs to be deployed. It is impossible to deploy too many aviation forces in the Caribbean. If the main force tends to the Caribbean, what should the Germans turn around to attack Newfoundland?

So a new round of quarrel was launched around this topic, and Dewey was at a loss. Finally, he could only catch Spruins and asked: "If the German army first occupied Trinidad and Tobago, and then attacked one of the four major Caribbean islands in March, would the navy be sure to win the battle?"

"There is certain that the probability is more than 50%"

According to the results of the staff's wargame deduction, in the early battle between islands, the German army had to pay the price of 12 battleships and 12 fleet aircraft carriers. The Atlantic Fleet, which was put into operation in March, can gain two new aircraft carriers completed and put into service in January. It can have an advantage of 7vs3 or 7vs4 in the crucial aircraft carrier force, so the chance of winning will be much greater. Even if the German army does not lose an aircraft carrier, it will have a certain winning rate in the 7vs5 state.

Dewey nodded. He finally understood why the generals of the army looked so ugly. The navy was still the same: let the army and the airline go to the advantageous German fleet to consume, and the opponent would be almost invested in the main force of the navy's fleet to fight back. If they win, the navy would save the country. If they lose, the army would not be able to do it in the early stage. However, he did not want to break through this window paper and even if they exposed it, they would not be able to get out of the stage. Just like the actions of redeeming Hawaii civilians, some things can only be done and not said.

"Who is the commander of the Caribbean Army now?"

"Lieutenant General Walter Kruger, who was originally the commander of the Third Army and the commander of the Southern Defense. He was just transferred to the Central American Caribbean War Zone and served as the commander of the Army two months ago. This was an order signed by President Truman before leaving office."

Dewey was impressed by this. Truman talked to him at that time. Because Dewey was not very familiar with military generals, he nodded and agreed without interfering. However, the name Kruger still made him have a sudden inspiration and asked hesitantly: "He and Marshal Kruger of Germany?"

"There is a certain historical origin. Perhaps the main branch of a family belonging to a family is far away from the side branches. General Kruger moved to the United States when he was 8 years old." Clark didn't know what Dewey was worried about, so he explained as carefully as possible.

Walter Kruger is an absolute German. He was born in Pratao, West Prussia in 1881. He moved to Ohio, USA in 1889. He caught up with the tail of the Spanish-American War and served in the Philippines for a long time. Later, he taught at the Army Service Academy. Because he understood German, he translated several German tactical works and became an expert in studying the German army. He was highly appreciated by his father Pershing. He served as a staff position in the first battle. After the armistice, he served as the chief of staff of the 4th Army stationed in Germany (his permanent rank was just a captain, and he served as the chief of staff with such a rank, which shows how extraordinary it was).

In 1923, he served as the director of the Operational Planning Department of the Army Department. What's more amazing is that he graduated from the Naval Academy in 1926 and then stayed at the school to teach for four years. He is a unique composite talent in the sea and land. He was promoted to brigade general in 1936, and then went to the Army to serve as the assistant chief of staff in charge of combat planning in the Army Staff Department, just like Pershing, and Marshall also likes him very much.

Clark's recommendation was selected as the commander of the Caribbean War Zone. He believed that like Kruger, he understood the army, the navy, and the experience of serving in the island (having been in the Philippines for a long time), there were no one in the army who came from German and understood the German army, and his qualifications, age and rank were qualified. He was simply the commander of the Caribbean War Zone tailored by God for America.

The suggestion was deeply recognized by MacArthur, Marshall and others, so the green light went all the way. In order to better defend the Southern Wing, Clark proposed to cut Central America and the Caribbean Sea from South America and independently form the Central America Caribbean War Zone. Walter Kruger became the first commander of the newly formed Central America Caribbean War Zone, and his status was on par with Lieutenant General Stilwell, the commander of the South American War Zone.

Dewey nodded and felt relieved. It turned out that the German generals in the army were the most capable of fighting. Not to mention that Kruger immigrated to the United States very early and made great contributions to the United States, even if he was really related to Marshal Kruger, it would be no big deal. Wasn't the latter hanged by the head of state for treason? Isn't the enemy's traitor the helper of his side?

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