"In the next time, oil prices will fall. Therefore, I believe that the country's oil policy should be conservative. Maintain the status quo and be prepared for the decline of oil prices." Su Cheng's straightforward answer expressed his opinion. In other words, he re-emphasized his opinion.

Wrong choices will lead to huge losses. If possible, Sucheng will try his best to convince Su Zhenguo. This has nothing to do with the individual, but about the country.

If the triangle bond is the meat rotting in the pot, the mistake of oil futures is equivalent to giving the meat to others.

Director Mao and Zhu Enbo both performed very seriously. In such a private occasion, facing three men surnamed Su can't help but make people think a lot.

Junbo was unwilling to offend Sucheng, but he also had a strong sense of responsibility and insisted: "At the end of November, the United Nations passed a war bill. The current situation is that the United States has won legal justice and they will launch a war against Iraq at any time. Once the war begins, oil prices will rise to a level that we cannot bear."

Zhu Enbo was a little excited and his eyes widened: "Dr. Su, our country's capital is small and profits are low. The rise in international oil prices will eventually be transmitted to the domestic manufacturing system. At that time, the prices of fertilizers, agricultural films, fishing nets, and fishery supplies will also rise, driving the prices of grain, vegetables and meat, and the prices of chemical fiber will also rise, that is, the prices of clothing will rise. In addition, the price of rubber and fuel prices will also increase the burden on the country."

In 1990, China had fewer vehicles, and the energy used for heating and production was mainly coal, and it was not as impulsive as the United States. However, the price of chemical fibers was a big problem. Nouns such as "哪liang", "nylon", "polyester", "acrylic", etc. were all chemical fiber raw materials made of petroleum. At this time, China had very little cotton and wool production, and petrochemical fiber products were the main source of clothing materials. The domestic clothing price was already expensive enough. If it was affected again, the textile industry would first have big problems.

Su Cheng admitted that what Zhu Enbo said made sense, but it was just a truth.

He thought for a while and said, "What you are talking about is the change in oil prices under normal circumstances. The problem now is that the Gulf crisis has already preliminarily promoted the rise in oil prices. From $18 to $38. The highest is $40, which is more than doubled. Even if the war really starts, this is the case. Moreover, oil prices have now fallen back to around $35. Once you buy too much, you will first face a large book loss."

"In the early stage of the war, oil must have a big increase. As the war extends, oil prices will also steadily increase. Moreover, war may involve Saudi Arabia. Once the Middle East is ruined, the oil prices will rise to a very outrageous rate..." Zhu Enbo sighed lightly and said: "Don't think that our country is an oil exporter, it is aimed at the crude oil itself. Our country imports a lot of refined oil every year, and there are more petrochemical products. At that time, these things will grow wildly and do not buy crude oil to make up for it. It will cause great losses."

Saudi Arabia is the largest oil producer in the world and the country with the most oil storage facilities, just like OPEC's buffer pool. If Iraq invades Saudi Arabia and produces certain results, the world oil market will collapse immediately.

Director Mao nodded unconsciously. In their opinion, Iraq, which has hundreds of thousands of cavalry and a large number of high-end equipment, has a real threat to Saudi Arabia. During the beginning of the ground war, Saudi Arabia's crude oil supply and utilization problems occurred.

The man talks about his reason, and the man talks about his reason is the current situation. Although it is difficult to convince the other party, Sucheng still tried his best and said, "What will the Gulf War be like? Let's not discuss it for now. However, it has been 4 months since mid-August to mid-December. The Americans have not started fighting, just to be fully prepared to deal with the worst-case scenario. China is afraid of oil prices? The United States and Western countries are even more afraid that neither wants the third oil crisis. Therefore, as participants and organizers of the war, the United States has done a lot of work. I guess that once the war begins, the United States will put its strategic oil reserves into the market. The oil reserves of the member states of the International Energy Agency are as high as 3.6 billion barrels, which can be consumed for 96 days in the world. This is a great force."

Junbo shook his head and said, "At the beginning of the war, the United States may release strategic oil. However, once the oil supply in the Middle East is tight or the front line is extended, oil prices will rise retaliatedly. The United States will not only stop the release of strategic oil, but may also buy back. I would like to say one possibility. Iraq uses missiles and other equipment to block the Persian Gulf and then crack down on Saudi Arabia's oil facilities. The oil supply will immediately become difficult."

Historically, the United States and many countries have deployed a large number of anti-aircraft guns and missiles in Saudi oil fields and used heavy concrete to protect the oil field's control computers in order to solve Iraq's tricks.

Saudi Arabia did not lose its chain either. It used a large number of small boats to transport oil to large tankers outside the Persian Gulf, and tried to maintain oil exports at pre-war levels.

Not only that, major Western oil companies also cooperated with the government's call and did not take the opportunity to raise prices. On the day the war began, Exxon, Shefron, Mainland Oil, Atlantic Oil and other group companies announced that they would freeze oil prices...

However, all these things that were not necessarily happening were fought back by Bush, and it took an unknown amount of energy to convince the Saudi royal family and oil companies. In the four or five months since Iraq invaded Kuwait, all the diplomatic direction of the US government has been used.

It is now the end of December, and Sucheng believes that these historical facts will still happen. But he cannot use these as reasons.

There are too many variables.

Saudi oil fields are indeed likely to be ignited, the Middle East oil roads are indeed likely to be cut off, and oil companies are indeed likely to be willing to live for money...

However, before the incident happened, who knows?

In 1990, China not only expected the Gulf War to fight the Vietnam War, but also the Soviet Union aided Iraq. According to the Cold War mentality, it was normal for the Soviet Union to fund the vassal states to participate in the war. Although the country was in chaos, it was not difficult to send arms to several ships.

Many people can say a lot by using the method of hindsight and reasoning afterwards. But before the war begins, who can guess the details?

A boring guy like Gorbachev has made a wrong decision for half a lifetime. Who knows whether the next decision is correct or wrong?

The luck of China's reform is that countries keep making mistakes in front of us. The Soviet Union adopted "shock therapy", and the economy was in a mess. China then adopted a dual-track price system, delaying the crisis caused by comprehensive marketization. The Japanese Prime Minister happily agreed to the "Platform Agreement", and the yen appreciation far exceeded expectations, so China adopted the control of the exchange rate...

No matter how wise the judge is, he is actually confused when facing the fog.

Su Cheng is not confused, but it is unlikely to convince Zhu Enbo. He turned his goal to Director Mao and Su Zhenguo, saying: "The task of the National Reserve Bureau should first be to ensure the safety of the national material supply. We are now oil exporters, and we should first consider hedging and choose to buy short. The oil price rises, our profits remain unchanged, and the oil price falls, and our profits remain unchanged. Let's see the changes in the oil market."

This is the safest way to do it. Although you can’t make money, you won’t lose money easily.

Zhu Enbo said uncomfortable: "My work unit is in the National Reserve Bureau, but my report is planned to be provided to central enterprises such as Sinopec, CNPC and other central enterprises. They have profit tasks and guarantee tasks, and they should be treated separately."

"It is a nominal enterprise, but Sinopec still has the responsibility to stabilize domestic prices in essence."

Su Dongyuan snorted dissatisfiedly: "Mu Qi!"

If it were Su Xing, he would immediately bow his head and receive teaching.

Su Cheng, however, said: "During the war, any situation may happen. When it is difficult to make a judgment, it is naturally the main focus. For such a large country, do you still need to raise funds through market speculation? There is nothing to be proud of if you win, but if you lose it, it is troublesome. Moreover, people who enter the casino always lose their pants."

When Hou Haiqing heard Su Cheng talk about the casino again, his eyelids moved and quickly lowered his head.

Su Dongyuan grabbed the talk and yelled: "The futures market is a casino, why did you go in?"

"I'm still young, I can lose." This is what Mu Qi said.

Su Zhenguo waved his hand, interrupting the two of them with a strong gunpowder smell, and asked with a smile: "Xiao Zhu, tell me, if you were asked to buy futures, how many would you plan to buy?"

A rare opportunity to perform!

Zhu Enbo tried hard to mobilize his brain: it is not good to buy more futures, and it is probably not good to buy less.

He thought of Sucheng's 87 million futures documents. Zhu Enbo hesitated for a moment and said, "I am going to do short-term futures for a period of time. The contract amount is about 200 million US dollars. When the war begins, we will advance to the medium- and long-term. This can not only ensure profits, but also ensure the safety of our country's oil and increase the profits of the oil industry. According to the situation, medium- and long-term futures contracts can be increased to 500 million US dollars."

Judging from the government funding in 1990, this money is really a lot.

Su Zhenguo turned to Sucheng and asked, "How much are you going to buy?"

"The mortgage is 100 million US dollars, and the contract amount is between 1 billion and 2 billion." Su Cheng said it very sure.

Zhu Enbo was stunned and thought to himself: How dare you!

Su Cheng's eyes, nose, and heart.

Su Zhenguo asked without comment: "Where is the petrochemical base of Haicang Plan? Are you still involved?"

"Of course." Su Cheng's tone was even more certain.

…{Piaotianwen Thank you for your support, your support is our greatest motivation}
Chapter completed!