Chapter 65 Decline and Adjustment (1)
The east coast has entered late autumn. Qingdao Port, which is covered with the dual halo of trade centers and financial centers, has fallen into a low depression at this time, due to the relative shrinkage of the traditional European market.
The third Qingdao Autumn Commodity Trading Expo, which lasted for a whole month, has just ended, but the number of merchants here in May is less than half of that of previous years. Correspondingly, the transaction volume at this year's expo is naturally not very optimistic. The previous two successful expos were in the front - domestic companies achieved profits of 300,000 and 450,000 yuan respectively - the third expo is currently roughly calculated, but the profit is only less than 400,000 yuan, which makes some related units not very good-looking.
However, this is a systemic risk, which is a force majeure factor for domestic manufacturers. The French Kingdom, which is a major European country and the second largest market in the East Coast, has risen mercantilist thoughts, and has greatly increased tariffs on goods imported from the East Coast, which has made textiles that occupy a considerable share of the East Coast exports suddenly become unprofitable and suffer heavy losses. Although their move is not just for the East Coast people, because these arrogant French people also imposed high tariffs on goods imported from the Netherlands, Britain, Genoa, Portugal, Germany and other regions, their behavior has actually seriously hindered the sales of East Coast goods and greatly damaged the interests of the East Coast Republic.
As we all know, the East Coast now spends a lot of money on immigration every year: including shipbuilding, transportation, port construction and related sailor training; the development and construction of transit bases; the development of new immigrant routes; local immigration resettlement costs, etc. Which of them should not cost a lot of money? The main finance of the East Coast government comes from the remittance of profits from state-owned enterprises, followed by taxes from all walks of life (including business taxes of state-owned and private enterprises, personal income tax, property tax, etc.). Now overseas trade has changed. The profits of export enterprises have dropped sharply or even lost losses, and the central fiscal revenue will inevitably shrink. But what is painful is that the central government has not cut spending at all (in fact, it is difficult to cut a lot for social stability), and plans to reduce immigration, so it is inevitable that a huge fiscal deficit in 1650 was inevitable. After all, the fiscal gap of one million yuan is not so easy to make up!
What's worse is that after France started this, other European countries followed suit. Although the amount of tax increases was not as exaggerated as the French, the profit margins of the East Coast people were more or less compressed. Cutting off people's wealth was like killing their parents. This time, the destruction caused by the Frenchman almost lost more than one million yuan in pure profits every year. How could this matter be easily let go? The "maritime toll station" in the Caribbean Sea is a serious warning! Of course, taking the huge and bloated bureaucratic organization of the Kingdom of France, after they figure out what happened in the Caribbean and reacted, it may have happened two years later.
However, for East Coast people, no matter how much money they get back from the Caribbean, they cannot make up for the loss of a big market. Because this is not only a matter of money, but also a matter of many issues such as the cultivation of the industrial atmosphere and the construction of the industrial system. No matter how much money they get from the outside world, most citizens have not participated in this process, and there is no benefit to industrial development. Perhaps it has a certain stimulation effect on enterprises that make a living by infrastructure (railways, highways, river transportation). After all, the government can continue to carry out infrastructure and their products can continue to be sold, but it is useless for the export manufacturing industry that occupies the main body of the East Coast industrial sector.
Without a market, there will be no profit, without profit, there will be nothing: the cultivation of industrial workers, the application of new technologies, the research and development of new products, etc. are gone, and the industrial system is like a stagnant water that has lost its source, cannot recover, cannot renew itself, cannot upgrade itself. Although the government can allocate huge industrial subsidies to maintain it, this is not a long-term solution after all, and can only be used as a temporary emergency. Therefore, if the domestic industrial system on the East Coast can continue to develop forward, then finding a new market will become an extremely necessary thing.
But this is not easy, and it takes time! The consequence of the rush is that in the second half of 1650, there may be a large degree of structural overproduction in the East Coast, and the export industry, especially the textile industry, will be severely impacted. The profits of the two key enterprises of the Dayuhe Machinery Textile Factory (the East Coast Company holds 60% of the shares), Ping An Weaving Factory, will drop significantly or even lose money. Perhaps only the newly established Luoqia Textile Factory will have a considerable profit due to the market (mainly sold to Greater Spain and represented by Genoese) and product structure problems.
Whenever he thinks of this problem, the new official takes office, Xu Xin, the Central Executive Committee member in charge of domestic industry and commerce, is anxious. Today is June 3, the third day after the official closing of the third Qingdao Autumn Trading Expo. Xu Xin specially found an old friend who was inquiring about the news for the people of the East Coast. Dutch captain Kuait came to inquire about the situation. After all, he is also one of the merchants and knows the ideas of the merchants best.
"Not very optimistic." Captain Kuait was still very old, but his voice was still very loud. He only heard him say in French: "I found an opportunity to ask Mr. Hill, Mr. Hampton from New England, Mr. Flores from France and Mr. Adrian from the South Netherlands. Everyone's purchases were much lower than in previous years. Although the dyed cloth produced on the East Coast and the printed cloth were still very good. After all, it is a good cloth with bright colors and does not fade easily, but the price is too expensive. Only some wealthy people will buy this high-end product. But you should know that the big profit often comes from the lowest-end products, the textiles on the East Coast, and it seems that the prospects are not good for the time being."
"Now it seems that the products that can continue to be popular in Europe are almost just a few types of steel bars, medicines, bean cakes, etc. The metal tools, dyed leather goods, arms, grains, and refined flour that you originally sold are not satisfactory now, under the obstruction of high tariffs, the sales of the West India Company has conducted a detailed investigation, especially the sales of grains, metal tools, and arms. With the gradual decline of the large-scale war in the old continent and the gradual recovery of production order, these products of yours are becoming less and less sold. You should notice that the grain exports in the Luoqia commodity trading market fell sharply last year by at least 20%, and this year's sales have fallen a lot compared with the same period last year, and it seems that they will continue to fall next year. Although I have not seen your sales data, I can feel it. Therefore, you should not have a great opportunity in the grain market. Forget this business in the future."
"In addition, your influence in the Old World is too weak. I really want to be honest, few people know you, and few people want to know you, and you don't have many powerful commodity agents at all, so no one is willing to promote your goods. Your reputation is also very poor, and the news of persecuting Catholics in the New World is now widely known by those who are interested, and you have bought a large number of Polish slaves from the Tatars and Cossacks, which further aggravates the bad impression of you in the Christ world.
In fact, to be honest, I am also very puzzled and disgusted by your extensive purchase of Polish prisoners of war and innocent civilians. After all, they are the people of the Lord, and after all, they are civilized people, and you should not humiliate them like this. This is my advice as a friend, and I will not say that in front of others. Your policies have deviated and need to be revised urgently, otherwise you may lose more and more markets in the Old World. You have to figure out where your market is today, and you should not offend the Christ world so much."
Listening to Captain Kuait's merciless criticism, Xu Xin's face became less and less beautiful. In fact, if you think about it carefully, there have been many people in the East Coast over the years, including the Spanish, the Dutch East India Company (of course, the two sides have already resumed normal relations), the British East India Company, the Kingdom of Lithuania (because of purchasing prisoners of war and female slaves), the Republic of Venice (because of selling battleships to the Ottoman Empire and commercial competition), and now there is a holiday with the French (although the French did not specifically target the East Coast people at all), which really offended people.
However, in this fucking 17th century, there is really nothing that can be developed without offending people. If you want to export goods, you will inevitably touch the interests of vested interests; if you want to develop a market and allies, you will inevitably offend the countries and forces that are hostile to it; even your skin and beliefs are original sins. I really think that Europeans will talk to you very much and drink all day because you come from the mysterious East? That's a pure idiot! People respect you just because of your strength, no other factors. If the East Coast people beat Spain, they will have a little status, but they are still deeply rooted in discrimination by old countries. This is the current mainstream political ideology in Europe.
It is so difficult to develop! Xu Xin sighed deeply, feeling that if he wants to break through this predicament and to eliminate the decline in domestic export manufacturing, he still needs to expand new markets. For example, the Spanish market with rapidly increasing market share in the East Coast is currently working hard to develop the Moscow market, and the Persian Kingdom market as a long-term plan. Even the African market can be considered. Those black people are not all fools with a stubborn mind. They will also trade with outsiders and produce some primary agricultural and mineral products themselves. If they operate well, they may not be able to digest some excess capacity for domestic industries.
Chapter completed!